What's with the obsession of Ruble falling?

 I am back in Kuala Lumpur again this week to visit my mother. While I am making it a point for this journey every month, it is tiring. 

Don't for once assume that it is not tiring doing nothing on a coach for 6 hours. The wait to arrive at the destination somehow drains the life out of me. I could still take it during my younger years, but it is getting more challenging nowadays.

My mum not doing that well, age is catching up with her. She is getting forgetful and having challenge in controlling her bladder. As such I have made an appointment with the Chinese Gynecologist for her on Monday. Seems like the days of hospital visit is here again!

Anyway, I am also aware that Ruble was on the news last week, at least on the youtube.com, all allies of Ukraine claiming Russia's losing war against Ukraine and that the Ruble was tumbling. This stirred my curiosity.

I have not been following on the Ukraine war for some time. It is really not my interest, and with the war dragging on for over 2 years, it is heading towards stalemate. I also dragged the Europeans into the war by now. All these is simple because US wants to drain Russia of its resources.

It is just that all these news on Ukraine war suddenly reemerged on my Facebook. They all with a common theme, the Ruble is crashing.

The question is, is it?

In my last entry on Ruble in A reading on Russia Moex and Ruble dated September 22nd 2022 (Gosh! has it been that long?), I was relatively inconclusive on its direction except with its possibility of a correction with resistances estimated at between RUB65.65 to RUB72.499 and between RUB74.94 to RUB90.40. It hit Rub100.965 by October 16th, 2023, before retreating.

Fig 1. Ruble weekly chart

Since then, it went on a decline until November 24th, 2023, followed by another long stretch of correction, then continued with its decline to the present level supported by its 89-week moving average, which also coincides with its minor 61.8% projection.

IT has created a hammer candle stick this week. While it may indicate a reversal at this point, it closed with a red body, giving me an impression of a weak indication of reversal while possibility of continuation, at least for now.

It may eventually reach its 100% projection at RUB77.16.

On a major Zig Zag formation, it tells that there is still some way to go for Ruble to its 61.8% projection at RUB37.54 while its 100% at -RUB1.742. The latter is a little far fetch at this point of time, but if you have a negative value on oil, why not Ruble?

Anyway, these are all indication that Ruble is strengthening against the USD, or USD getting weaker.

Does it have anything to do with Saudi not renewing its contract with the USA to maintain the oil trade based on USD? This will lead to a lower demand for USD and potentially causing USD to fall, not only against Ruble but also others.

May be it will be good for me to check on USD performance in the coming week.

The flaw of group project in school and is Hang Seng continuation...downward?

 I missed one entry last week. No, I was not lazy, something happened. 

I found |Civil Engineering competition which is a useful experience for my son in working on project and I asked my son to organize a team and participate.

He did, working with a friend at the Polytechnic who then took on the leadership role in forming a team and registered. 

The competition commenced on Monday the week before last, releasing all information by Monday. 

It was to my surprise then that the team was in absolute inaction, considering the deadline was in 2 weeks (today), only one meeting was called scheduled Thursday for discussion.

I asked my son to call the leader to set the direction for the team, the answer was a single word, "research". It told me that he has no idea what to do at all.

I could not stand there as it was me who ask my son to participate. I told my son that I offer to drive his team on a site visit to have a better understanding on the project. Only one member took up the offer.

The Thursday meeting as described by my son turned out to be a waste of time, with decision to tackle eroding seabed, which is totally irrelevant to the condition of the territory that is having issue with accumulating sediments and deteriorating water quality due to water stagnation.

Furthermore, the leader did not take action in contacting a lecturer for consultancy. In addition, the whole went missing after the meeting, stating that they were unavailable to participate (The "leader" was involved in another event travelling to Batam, the Burmese went back to Myanmar and won't be back till school opens, another one went for a holiday in Japan, and the worst is the Malay guy who said OK to everything only to cancel in the last minute, every time, this was the guy who requested to be part of the team in the first place).

Technically it was only a team of one for my son. I could not take it anymore telling my son that he was screwed by his whole team simply because he let other take charge. I insisted on him taking action or the project will sink. 

We contacted a lecturer at the Polytechnic for discussion by Monday, while worked on the issue on water quality and sediments accumulation, we almost complete the proposal when the lecturer pointed out the intention of coastal protection was in the direction of tackling rising sea level.

My Tuesday, we set out a second proposal on sea wall for the coast, completing by Thursday and creating a Infographic (it was called poster during my time) by Saturday. Submitting the proposal by midday.

The leader then still have the cheek to meet up "offering help", got some information from my son, cut and paster to create an infographic himself. However, because of his inaction, he has no idea what was happening at all and the infographic turned out to be junk.

One may ask, " if the whole team is sabotaging you, why do you insist your son to carry on?"

First of all, I do not believe in group project, most of your member because many think that it is like communism, it does not matter how much work you put in, the team will get the same score. It will only pull back the good and hard working while helping the lazy to gain in their aggregates.

Having said that, there are still gain for those who work especially when it is a learning journey.

To start with, my son learns the project process from me on how to approach the issue and come out with the solution for the proposal. He also realizes the importance of site visit which gives a real sense on situation on-site. He also learns proposal generation with target customers.

Most importantly, he learns to take more care in making friends in the future. sure, this bunch of friends may gain in fame if the team get into top 6. Yet they know within them that they have gained the most important this from the project, knowledge.

Lastly, both of us become an expert in the North Western coast of Singapore, with knowledge on the government's intention for development in the region.

Ending the rant, let's move on to charting.

I have meant to include an entry on Hang Seng last week but mised this out due to the project. It seems to have reversed.

In my last entry on this counter Hang Seng at 55-week moving averageHang Seng at 55-week moving average, I suspected it would go higher even though it was at its 55-week moving average. I have placed resistance level between 18,466 to 18,621. It broke these levels reaching a high of 18,784 before retreating. Is it reversing downward from here?

Fig 1 Hang Seng weekly chart

Hang Seng went to a low of 17,776 before closing at 17,819 last week, mildly below its 55-week moving average of 17,832.  This is a tricky level as it may rebound from here moving higher from here. 

To start with, Hang Seng retreated from its 61.8% projection line. While the decline seems steep, its aggressiveness is dwarf by the amplitude of it's climb. I suspect this may be a correction before climbing further to its 100% projection of 22,886.

On a bigger scale, I am still seeing at least a double top, its objectives are between   8,455 to 13,215. I believe Hang Seng is presently in bottom formation, and its previous low may not be its lowest point.

Assuming that it has reversed on week of 12/5/2024, its projection brings support at between 11,839 to 14,892.

There is another measurement which depict Hang Seng to reach a further low with support level 6,088 to 12,461.

Is Nikkei firm on continuation downward?

In my last update on Nikkei "Is Nikkei beginning it's descend?" dated 20th April 2024,I estimated that Nikkei is likely to correct before continuation on its descent as its descent at the time was supported by its 21-week moving average. 

Since then, Nikkei indeed corrected until this week, when it tests its 8-week moving average only to retreat by the end of the week, creating a potential hammer candlestick.

Does it mean Nikkei is going to continue its journey downward from now?

Fig 1. Nikkei weekly chart

Let's start with the gradient of its uptrend, which is very steep, it indicates momentum upward prior to its descent. It follows by the hammer this week which Nikkei fails to break through, giving me impression that there is some weakness in its fall. It is possible that Nikkei is presently correcting and will head higher after that.

The next question is whether Nikkei has completed its correction or there are more down side?

While supported by both its 8 and 21-week moving average this week, I believe that it will retest these supports before heading down towards its 55-week moving average, which coincide with the 100% projection support presently at 35,077. 

What if I am wrong?

Then we will see its resistance at the Bollinger envelop at 40,772, which also coincide with its 127% projection resistance.

The thing is that Nikkei has already crossed the 100% projection resistance of a major move and there is limited upside. The chance of it heading downward is higher. 

Will it break 55-week moving average and make its descent more permanent?

That will depend on it momentum in its next phase.