Malaysia tak boleh lagi?

 Malysia political arena is in a mass right now.

The present unity government is a coalition of convenience since no one alliance managed a majority share to form a government. The Agong at the time (presently Selangor Sultan) appointed Pakatan Harapan (PH) to form the government who netted in the ouster Barisan Nasional (BN), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) as well as some smaller parties.

On the opposition end is Perikatan Nasional (PN) comprises Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) Parti Pribumi Berrsatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan).

While PH is the leader of the ruling alliance, Anwar Ibrahim is seemingly being grabbed by the balls by Barisan Nasional who supposed to be a smaller component, acted like it is still the boss. PH's component Democratic Action Party (DAP) who gained the majority Chinese support, is quiet like a puppy whenever Chinse interest is being violated.

In In order to strengthen the support from the Malay community, PH under the leadership of Anwar Ibrahim pend towards Malay conservatism to fight against PN. For some reason, Anwar become the spoke man for Gaza against Israel aggression, sanctioning his countrymen to violate Israel's sovereigns through the Gaza flotillas, critical on US-Israel invasion and killing the leaders of Iran, ignoring the fact that these leaders killed 10s of thousands of their countrymen who happened to be Muslim themselves. Apparently, he is fine when killing is done by Muslim. 

Locally, he maintains 90% of higher education position to be allocated to Malay, who only comprises of 70% of the population, while the other 30% needs to fight for the remaining 10%. By doing so, he deprives higher education opportunity for ethnic minority, causing a massive outflow of talents oversea. At the end, he said, "this is fair."

It is also under the governance of PH that compulsory Buni's equity capital to raise from 30% to 50%. companies acquiring above RM20 million properties or strategic assets from GLC and GLICs, as well as listed companies on Brusa Malaysia. This means that if any company wants to involve in government projection requires to give up 50% of their share, they no longer have any say on direction of the company. 

Non-Islamic religion lacks the privileges of Islam (Which is the national religion of Malaysia), and struggle to set up their places of worship. they tend to acquire spaces in commercial and industrial area.  Lately it is also revealed that the local government of Selangor is initiating a policy that forbid non-Islamic religious organizations from setting up their place of worship in commercial and industrial area, without any proposal for alternatives. Surprisingly, this happens under the government involving DAP, claiming that religious activities cause traffic congestion. 

The irony here is that right after this was revealed, another proposal of setting up a large prayer room at  Bukit Bintang the busiest and most congested commercial area. 

It is under the leadership of PH that all pig farms are removed from Selangor. It does not matter if the cost of pork is going up because pig farms are dirty. It is a different thing if it is a cattle, goat or chicken farm. Then it is found that the Rohingas who were received by the Malaysian government slaughtering up to 20 cattle in the back street of crowded shophouses where people reside, with blood and feces flowed into the drains risking contamination, it was overlooked because it was meant for religious purpose.

Government under PH leadership elevates the level of double standard suppressing the interest of minorities.

Lately, more surprises emerge. First, UMNO has decided to go on its own to compete in the local election of 56 seats in the state of Johore. I am not surprised with this move since it has been the top boss in this arena for decades and will not bow to PH permanently. It will definitely leave when there is an opportunity. This however infuriated PH who deemed the act as a form of betrayal and vow to punish UMNO by competing against UMNO not only in Johore, but also Negeri Sembilan, as if they are highly confident of the local support for them.

Rafizi, the 2nd in command of PKR component of PH resigned and left the party, joining and led another party Bersama to participate in the coming election. This marks a rift in the PKR leadership. 

 As it seems, all these seems to favor the opposition, as long as they maintain their position However, it reveals that Bersatu are not in good term with PAS. All the sudden, Hadi Awang, the serial traitor of PAS calling out Bersatu betrayal and there is a threat of te alliance breaking up. 

If all these come true, the future of Malaysia political arena is very vague. There is no one option that the voters can go for, because all of them rotten to the core.

Which is why this entry, because I am seeing something worrisome on Malaysia economy.

Fig 1. KLSE weekly chart

First of, KLSE hit its 100% projection resistance, bounded between 100 and 127% projection. It failed the reach higher high, restricted by its upper Bollinger envelop. It reversed with momentum thereafter., 

It has broken through the incremental trend line after a false break earlier. There is a potential double top formation.

At the same time, while on the decline, it has yet to reach the neckline. There might be a full back towards the trendline before continuation downward.  

Since there is a higher potential is down with a double top formation, I can first obtain the measurement for with support at between 1,552 to 1,595.

There are potential support while on the way down though, which is between 1,628 to 1,658, coinciding with its 55-week moving average presently at 1,657.

I end my entry today with an advice to the Malaysia ruling alliance: You better go for te election early. The later Malaysia go for election, the worse the market that they are facing, and there will be more unhappiness then with more finger pointing to PH.

Oil is not looking good...

Well, the war has started with US and Israel attacking Iran. The commodity affected most is definitely crude oil. Iran is an oil producing country supplying mainly to China. It is also a threat at the mouth of the Red Sea, stopping oil shipment from Saudi Arab. It will definitely cause a stir on oil as a result.

I have captured news on hike on oil prices since the war started. But since I am no longer driving, I thought that if might not affect me that much. 

Curiosity still drove me to check on this counter, though.

The last time I did a piece on oil was Crude oil is cooling down dated 12th May 2024. I was adamant at the time of its immediate support at between 60.41 to 71.06, with possible extension to 28.79 to 54.12 should the prior level failed.  

It reached a low of 55.30 by 5th May 2025, maintaining a horizontal congestion for some time. This came very close to the higher side of my lower zone predicted. 

Fig 1. Crude Oil Light weekly chart

However, as can be seen from the chart, while it has been on a decline since its peak of 130.50 on 7th April 2022, its gradient was very mild. this indicated counterwave move. This is confirmed by continuous overlapping highs and lows. This in fact created a wedge stretching multiple years. 

Breaking out upward is definitely a certainty. The question is: How far?

With the measurement started from the negative zone of -40.32 on 20th April 2020, it allows a long stretch on breakout. estimating using its projection, I am seeing the 61.8% projection resistance level at 160.48. This follows by its 100% projection of 226.97.

Certainly, these values are unthinkable for us right not. At the same time, it is a logical measurement using Projection pattern.

As of last week, crude oil shot up in a long single bar. I will consider this a relatively good news. Why? This an over reaction from the market. 

While Crude Oil opened this morning with a continuation upward, reaching a high of 119.48, resisted by its 261% projection of 119.11. 

It has since retreated. As of the time of this entry, it is at 101.19.

I estimate that it will continue to retreat, correction downward for now, with its support at 67.54. 

However, it is not very good news over a long period of time, because the trend direction is now set upward. The long-term estimation that I have set is a possibility. 

This is not a very good outlook for our coming future, it means that the energy that we are obsessed with is going to be very expensive.

USD reversing against EUR and GBP?

 My update on EUR and GBP was quite some time ago in my entry It is tumbling down, but it is not yet for Dow Jones dated 8th September 2024.  This was more than a year.

Since my present series is on currencies began with MYR, I believe it is a good time to check on these 2 counters to look into their health, especially when US is officially entering a war against Iran with Israel.

To some extent, I do not really agree with Trump going to war, this is a marketing part, where he positioned himself as a non-warfare president. In a certain sense, he failed to uphold this narrative.  

At the same time, why should he?

Trump was not rewarded for his earlier action. He was moving towards a peaceful direction, and the result was continuous bully from all sides. 

Nobel simply refused to acknowledge his effort for peace; his attempt to brokerage peace between Ukraine and Russian as humiliated by both sides; Britain and members of European Union abused his attempt to mediate to strengthen their link with Ukraine to continue their pet project against Russia; and Putin mocked him by agreement to cease fire while increasing the intensity of his attack.

It seems like nice guy coming last is true here.

So what good does he get by heading into war?

Americans have been against staging another war for a long time, afterall, US of A has not fare well in warfare since after WWII. They lost in the Korean and Vietnam war, followed by the 2 rounds of Iraq wars that drained a lot of their resources, not to mention the war of Afghanistan that ended with an embarrassed withdrawal of the US troop. 

The people of USA are tired of losing.  

First off, US operation in Venezuela shocked the world, not because of the so call "invasion", but how powerful and precise the US military might be. They entered a country's capital that was fully fortified, captured the president and have him shipped back to USA for trial.

This does not earn him respect, but induced fear into all the Central America countries that has been defying USA for close to a decade. All these countries intentionally opposed USA while enjoying the goods of US wealth. the operation in Venezuela is a wakeup call to all of them, making them realize that US has the power to disable them and chose not to all these times. Now even Cuba is seeking peace talk with US, something that had not happened since JFK.

The most important thing here is that he helps USA to regain its pride. This is what he promised the people of USA, they will have so much winning until they cannot take it anymore.

The attack on Iran on the other hand is to give the United Nation, Russia and China the middle finger, and demonstrating how far behind are the number 2 and 3 in military power against US. As such Trump has to win this war against Iran, the key word is 'fast', the longer it drags on, the lower the support from home it will be.. Not only that he has to make sure that he can succeed when all his predecessors failed, which is the rebuilding process.

Europe and Britain reacted differently on this Iran war. Europe chose to support Trump since the war started (with exception of Spain), Britain led by Keir Starmer on the other hand, decided to have a weak spine and tried to chicken out, being called out by Trump. 

Anyway, enough of my rant. I am supposed to just look at EUR and GBP. What I see on both GBP and EUR are similar.

Fig 1. EURUSD weekly chart

EURUSD peaked on 25th January 2026 with a high of 1.20827. At the same time a shooting star was formed. It was on a retreat since then, resisted by its 100% (1.19187) of its major projection.

It however, was not decisive in this direction, reason? Overlapping bars and a lack of momentum. It is also support by its 100% (1.16332) to 127% (1.15164) projection on its decline. Further to that, it is also coming close to its 55-week moving average of 1.153020. This also coincide with its 127% projection of 1.15099.

While with sign of divergence from MACD, it is yet to show confirmation. 

There may still be a chance that EUR to climb back up one more time before a true reversal to come true. It may crawl back to test its 100% projection again. If it manages to breakthrough, its next level of resistance will be its 127% projection of 1.23923.

Fig 2. GBPUSD weekly chart

Similarly, GBPUSD reversed on25th January 2026 with a shooting star. difference here is the overlapping of the bars is more consistent. Like EURUSD, there is also divergence on its MACD.

Difference from EURUSD is that it managed to reach its 55-week moving average of, further to that, a hammer is formed while supported by this moving average of 1.33080 as well as its 61.8% projection of 1.33896. It is possible that GBPSD will reverse up in the coming week. However, it requires bar confirmation, as this in conflict with its MACD behavior that tends to cross downward.

If it is to trend downward, I will see a much stronger support at its Bollinger envelop of 1.31033. On continuation upward, its next level of resistance will be the other envelop of 1.37993, which coincide with the 61.8% of a major projection of 1.37840.

In conclusion, there is a tendency for USD to strengthen against both EUR and GBP, but not just yet. With USA and Israel, the only ones into the war, they are the one spending money, it will also mean a weakening of USD during this period, if USA is to be dragged in a much longer period of time, it will really lead to USD to further deteriorate against ALL other currencies.

 

CNY is indeed getting stronger

 I did not intend to have this entry. It was some time ago that I received news that China currency depreciating. It was not a currency pair of my interest; I shelved this currency pair after my last entry Is China doing badly? dated 28th September 2024.  

I noted at the time a potential double top formation with tendency to decline downward, meaning a strong CNY. I expected a support level of between 6.8551 to 6.9459 at the point of time.

Well, after completing my trade this morning, I just got curious and decided to take a look at its chart.

It was to my surprise that there is a firm break out of its double top and in progress of heading downward!

Fig 1. CNY weekly chart

From the chart, it is close to its 61.8% extension of 6.7942. This will be a possible area of reversal. In reversal, I believe it is going to correct. Why?

This is base on probability, there is a retracement to neckline after breakout from top or bottom formation. 

This correction may end at its neckline of 7.0010. 

On continuation, we should see the next support at 6.6603, which is its double top objective. Will it reverse after that? Not sure, as the present setup only tells me this much.

Met a person from a Singapore team trading gold.

 I attended an open house of Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) yesterday.  My son's diploma course is reaching completion, and it is time to again consider the next step in further study.

The university courses focus on strength in science and technology and most of the courses result in at least Bachelor of Science. 

The interesting part is I met a person there who is part of a team of people trading in gold, reason? 

The mentor of the team has multiple years of experience in trading gold, and he guides the team on their trading strategies.

This caught my attention, as gold has appeared on my radar recently when news of gold "crashing". Meeting this person seems to a sign for me to check it out.

My last entry on gold was Gold shot up.... dated 21st April 2024, close to 2 years ago. I was bullish on this counter at the time with estimated objective of 2,527. As gold was not really my interest, I just left it there and then.

It is indeed a surprise that it reached a peak of 5,586 before correcting on 24th January 2026. More than double of my origin target. Where will gold be heading after this correction?

Fig 1. Gold (GC=F) weekly chart

First off, the plunge was strong, a full 1,189 plunge, a drop of 21% in less than 2 weeks. No wonder there is so much yelling at the time, especially from China.

It was however, supported by its 8-week moving average and went on continuation thereafter. while the MACD is very high at a height of 529, there is even a gapped up this week indicating much momentum upward.

Further to that, its movement maintained below its Bollinger envelop, the increment is quite in control.

What is its weakness then?

It is fast reaching its short term 61.8% projection resistance of 5,277.97. It is also getting close to its longer term 61.8% projection of 5,442.51, follows by its 100% projection of 5,538.97. 

It is close to its previous high of 5,586, and the plunge on week o 24th to 31st January 2026 demonstrated a significant level of weakness. Its move after that is milder in comparison, even with its gap up this week. The gap might just be due to exhaustion.

I foresee some struggle for gold in the near future, especially between 5,442 to 5,539. However, I am yet to see any sign of reversal here. It may correct or congest and will go higher base on its present indication. Reason?

Its moving average alignment, which suggest an uptrend continuation.

What is the significance of gold other than an indication o inflation? 

In the past, USD was gold standard, which allow USD to be more stable and stronger. The weakness of this is limitation of its circulation. Things change when the tie was broken and USD floated.

As gold is still traded in USD, it shows weaker Dollar every time gold climbs higher. We should be seeing inflation in place for US of A. This may be made worse with Tariff in place. 

The question now is: Is inflation just a US problem or is it spreading out? 

I will have to check on GBP and EUD which will be done on my next entry.

After looking at MYR, now the question is, "is SGD all right?"

After checking on SGDMYR last week, I was curious if it was MYR strengthening against SGD or it is SGD that grew weaker. It might therefore good to check on other currency pairs involving SGD.

The most important component is USDSGD or SGD. My last check on this component was in FD in USD with 3.6% interest, go for it? on 7th December 2025, that was quite recent. 

At the time, while USD seemed to be strengthening against SGD, I believed that it was a correction phase of a downward move. SGD reached its 55-week moving average at the time. I believe that it would reverse and continue its downslide thereafter with support at between SGD1.24438 to SGD1.2701.

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

USDSGD indeed continued on its downslide upon touching the 55-week moving average. 

At this point of time, it has reached the said support level, reaching a low of 1.25865 and closing at 1.26753 this week. Its gradient of decline is similar to that of prior decline. Further to that it has just broken the previous lows of 1.27889 on 22nd September 2024 and 1.26981 on 29th June 2025.

At the same time, I am seeing a Doji and bars start overlapping on decline, there may be a short-term correction, especially when it is at its 61.8% projection support now.

So, how shall I estimate its future moves?

First, a correction upward. At the same time, its decline has not yet completed. 

It is possible for USDSGD to correct again with its resistance at its 8-week moving average of 1.27440 follow by its 55-week moving average of 1.29682. 

On continuation, I am seeing support at its major 61.8% projection of 1.24494. Breaking this, its next support will be its 100% projection level of 1.20538. I believe this will be a stronger support level and it may be the level that USDSGD reverses. This is where the 100% projection of both minor and major projection coincide.

Now let's move on to SGDJPY, my last update on this component was Monetary intervention on SGD and a case for the currency on 16th October 2022. I am surprised that it was that long. 

At the time, I estimated that SGD would strengthen against JPY with an objective of about 107 Yen per SGD. Apparently, it went further than that.

Fig 2. SGDJPY weekly chart

The chart of SGDJPY is quite messy, I assume data inaccuracy as the reason. I will avoid the super long tails to ignore the noises as such.

Even so. It can be seen that SGDJPY reached a high of120.016 on 9th July 2024 before correction.

The thing here is that it has just crossed its 100% minor projection and resisted by its 127% projection right now. Coincidentally, it is also at its 61.8% of its major projection.

It gained multiple support at its 55-week moving average and its Bollinger envelope before its continuation. Since then, it managed to reach new highs with its highest at 124.426 before congesting at its 8-week moving average. 

I believe it may further correction with next support at its 21-week moving average of 120.485, breaking this will lead to the next support of 55-week moving average at 117.3622.

On continuation, it will reach yet new high with first resistance at its 161% minor projection of 125.9501, breaching this will see further resistance at its 100% major projection of 131.733. 

In conclusion, SGD should stay strong. It also means that Malaysia's economy is improving since MYR is strengthening against SGD.

Now that SGDMYR reaching its support zone, what's next?

My last update on SGDMYR was actually quite recent titled Malaysia is getting expensive dated 30th Nov 2025. I estimated its support zone to be between 3.0895 to 3.1013. 

I went to Johore 2 weeks ago for some bank work and Lunar New Year purchases. To my surprise, SGDMYR reached the top side of the support zone. I was tempted to perform some forex, but held off as I believe that the component has not reached its bottom.

The people of Malaysia were with much joy, and many were voicing, "Finally, Singaporeans will now have to come to work in Malaysia." 

The thing here is that there are already Singaporeans working in Malaysia, most notably Johore Bahru. There are Singapore entities opening manufacturing and sales offices there and they have to place some Singaporeans to manage their subsidiaries. 

The one thing that these Malaysians have ignored is: while SGDMYR dropped from a top of 3.72 to a low of 3.0795. The salary difference between Malaysia and Singapore is still 1 to 3. Will the entities in Malaysia willing to pay MYR9,000 for a Malaysian engineer in Malaysia? Singapore on the other hand can afford SGD3,000 for such Malaysian engineer, as long as he is competent and able to deliver.

SGDMYR will have to be at par for this Malaysia dream to realize, and at this point of time, the way the leaders of the country continue to emphasize on Ketuanan Melayu, we will continue to see an outflow of talents, no matter how much the government call for its talents to return. 

While they continue to demand others to be sensitive to the feeling of Malays, have they ever respected others, especially when they are the ones at disadvantage without the support of other races?

Understand this, respect has to be earned.

Since then, it continued on its decline for 2 weeks, reaching a low of 3.0795. This also coincide with its 127% minor projection level. Now that it is the "bottoming", shall I make some conversion?

Fig 1. SGDMYR weekly chart

First off, while sliding down, the bars are overlapping. it is meeting support energy. It shows potential sign of a reversal. 

However, there is yet indication from neither MACD nor the moving average set up. furthermore, I will have to see breakout downward, breaching the Bollinger envelop before expecting a reversal. If "reversal" happens at this point of time potential for correction is higher, and continuation will follow suit.

Should correction happen, the closest resistance will be its 8-week moving average of 3.1193, follows by its 21-week moving average of 3.2337. However, based on my experience 21-week moving average is normally week in resistance or support strength. a more prudent resistance will be its 55-week moving average. 

But I am anticipating a reversal, so I believe there is a higher potential for correction to only 8-week moving average before continuation.

Therefore, I have to look more at further support as such. 

Measuring based on a larger projection set up, the level that I have recorded in my earlier entry coincided with its 61.8% projection level at 3.1475, which was also the minor 100% projection of 3.1564. 

Its present level, on the other hands, coincide with the 127% of its minor projection at 3.0941, which prompts me to anticipate a correction. The only concern is: it failed to cross back upward after penetrating this level this week.

On continuation, I believe it will eventually reach its 100% projection at 2.9484, the only obstacle will be the 161.8% support of its minor projection support at 3.0140. Again, based on my experience, this is a prudent level of support or resistance.